NC Media Watch

A quest for reason and accuracy in letters to the editor, guest editorials and other issues of interest to the citizens of Western Nevada County.

Sunday, October 30, 2005

Dim bulb? (Edited)

Prince Charles on CBS 60 Minutes:
You know, if you look at the latest figures on climate change and global warming ... they're terrifying, terrifying,"
Yea, it is up +0.6C over the last 27 years. One hell of a rapid rise! No, Really if you only listen to the BBC, or have the the tabloid press read to you, mght think this was a rapid rise too.

Edits include change in time period and this link. See my comment below and follow this link for some data.

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7 Comments:

Blogger Iceberg said...

Russ, a 0.6 C rise over a century span is unprecedented. It IS "one hell of a rapid rise" and "terrifying."

Please understand the science and palaeoclimatology before making such foolish comments.

Sun Oct 30, 10:50:00 PM PST  
Blogger Russ Steele said...

Iceberg:

Right I should have said the last 27 years. But, there is not an unpresidented rapid rise. Past records show a 3C rise in about the same time. You can see the details for the last 27 years here: http://www.junkscience.com/MSU_Temps/datasets.htm

Now, why do I need to understand "palaeoclimatology" when we have records going back 100 years.


Palaeoclimatology, from the Greek word "palaios", meaning "ancient", is the study of past climates and past climate change, prior to the period of instrumental records.

Russ

Mon Oct 31, 12:39:00 PM PST  
Blogger Iceberg said...

"Right I should have said the last 27 years. But, there is not an unpresidented rapid rise. Past records show a 3C rise in about the same time."

When was this? Where can I find it? The JunkScience page (run by some guy who knows little about climatology) sure doesn't have this data.

"Now, why do I need to understand "palaeoclimatology" when we have records going back 100 years.

Palaeoclimatology, from the Greek word "palaios", meaning "ancient", is the study of past climates and past climate change, prior to the period of instrumental records."

Instrumental records are not the only way of collecting data! The MBH studies use tree rings, ice cores, and other proxy sources to reconstruct past climates, and these sources are calibrated to the instrumental record. They are accurate!!!

Mon Oct 31, 09:57:00 PM PST  
Blogger Russ Steele said...

Icegerg:

If you will look closely at the Junkscience graphics you will see that the data is from goverment data bases, including those in England. The discussion was about the last 100/27 years which we have recorded temperature data, we do not have to rely on proxies data from tree rings.

If you think these proxies are accurate you are fooling yourself. They are indicators. Temperature is only one factor in tree growth. Moisture and CO2 fertilization are two other factors. Go to www.climateaudit.org for some detail on the problem with tree ring proxies.

The MBH studies are highly questionable. Mann has been challenged to explain his process and rational at: http://sciencepolicy.colorado.edu/prometheus/archives/climate_change/000618invitation_to_mcinty.html

Take some time and read up on the issues.

Tue Nov 01, 07:42:00 AM PST  
Blogger Iceberg said...

"Take some time and read up on the issues."

I have. On http://www.realclimate.org, in several books and articles, and I've taken a few courses in university on palaeoclimatology. Bradley's text "Paleoclimatology" and Alley's "The Two Mile Time Machine" are excellent reads. Have you taken anything on this from an accredited post-secondary institution or read Bradley's book?

I cannot trust the research by those who signed the Oregon Petition. All they want to see is business-as-usual until the climate system breaks.

"If you think these proxies are accurate you are fooling yourself. They are indicators. Temperature is only one factor in tree growth. Moisture and CO2 fertilization are two other factors."

When tree rings are used, sometimes temperature is the limiting factor, meaning temperature (or growing season length) determines the width of tree rings.

Proxies are indicators, but when calibrated with the temperature record, they can illustrate the temperature record prior to instrumentalisation very well.

Tue Nov 01, 10:50:00 AM PST  
Blogger Frederic Christie said...

Another thing I think you very much misunderstand, Russ, is what you yourself imply. Yes, we have seen periods of rapid warmth. Say, during times of drought. But there are two key differences.

First, that this is not "natural". That may seem an artificial distinction, but in fact it is very important. When natural cycles develop, there are localized disturbances, but as reasonable holistic systems, ecologies develop adaptation mechanisms.

Second, that this warming is showing no sign of subsiding, indeed is increasing, and (as long as we retain our current energy systems) will continue to increase or stay the same almost indefinitely.

Those two facts combined make this warming uniquely dangerous, even if it isn't outside of natural equilibria, which it clearly is.

Wed Nov 02, 09:55:00 PM PST  
Blogger Iceberg said...

"Modeling Of Long-term Fossil Fuel Consumption Shows 14.5 Degree Hike In Temperature":

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2005/11/051101222522.htm

Thu Nov 03, 07:58:00 AM PST  

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