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Wednesday, September 28, 2005

Nothing unususal about current climate warmth

From CO2 Climate Science, 28 Septermber 2005

Air temperatures at Armagh Observatory, Northern Ireland, from 1796-2002. International Journal of Climatology 25: 1055-1079.

What was done
. . . Butler et al. standardized three temperature series from Armagh Observatory in Northern Ireland to obtain a nearly continuous record of temperature at this location since 1796.

What was learned
. . . On longer time scales, multi-decadal oscillations are noted in the many-year warm and cold periods scattered throughout the record, including a relatively cool interval prior to 1820 followed by a warmer period that peaked about 1830 and lasted until nearly 1870. Thereafter, a second cool interval ensued, followed by another warm peak between 1940 and 1960, while yet another cool period held sway from 1960 to 1980. The record then ends with a final warm period over its last decade; but this period is not in any way extraordinary, as the authors say that "in spite of the current warmer conditions, annual mean temperatures still remain within the range seen in the previous two centuries."

What it means
In contrast to the highly publicized climate-alarmist claim that the past two decades have experienced unprecedented warmth due to CO2-induced global warming, the Armagh record indicates that "we are not yet beyond the range of normal variability," to quote its developers. . .

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3 Comments:

Blogger Frederic Christie said...

Here's an argument describing the devastating droughts that may be caused by anthropogenic (or otherwise) warming: http://www.organicconsumers.org/corp/drought101104.cfm

This article describes Antarctic changes and notes, "Mean temperatures over the whole planet have risen by about 0.6° C (just over 1° F) in the last 100 years. More than half of this increase has happened in the last 25 years." Though many think and argue that numerically this is far beyond what has often been seen, what is really terrifying is the rapidity, which is increasing lockstep with greenhouse emissions.
http://www.coolantarctica.com/Antarctica%20fact%20file/science/global_warming.htm

Wed Sep 28, 12:56:00 PM PDT  
Blogger Russ Steele said...

Frederic: Do you read the links before you post them?

Yes, in the past the earth has experienced global warming which produces droughts. The longest recorded in California was 27 years,in the mid 1100s according to tree rings. I forget the starting and ending date.

The Antarctic article points out, that 98 percent of Antarctic shows no ice melting, in fact the ice depth is growing about 2 inched a year.

Over half of the global warming took place in the first 50 year, before CO2 started to rise? So, is CO2 the cause of this increase? Is it the cause of the temp increase over the last 25 years. Show me the proof that CO2 is the cause? According nto the ices core studies, CO2 consentrations followed the warming. We found out that the heat wave in Europe last year, caused trees to emit, not consume CO2?

Wed Sep 28, 08:07:00 PM PDT  
Blogger Frederic Christie said...

Oh, yes I do. This is a very nuanced link, of course, and I don't agree with all of its conclusions, but it does emphatically say that warming is occuring and increasing.

We've had this discussion, Russ. The heat wave, commonly connected by scientists to global warming as a heuristic case, may have altered tree growth and behavior, but in fact everyone expects it to do that. Warming will make some plants grow faster, yes, among other things; but that is outside of natural equilibrium. Plants, barring violence or chance, live out their lifespan no matter how long it takes. If it goes faster, they die faster. Short productivity gains will be eclipsed by mass destruction. It is very simple: We are seeing new phenomena. You are right that previously natural phenomena behaved in a different way. That's the point.

Wed Oct 05, 12:13:00 AM PDT  

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