NC Media Watch

A quest for reason and accuracy in letters to the editor, guest editorials and other issues of interest to the citizens of Western Nevada County.

Sunday, July 24, 2005

Answers to CCAT Questions

Ingrid Cattano, of CCAT answered the questions posed in Large Scary Number.
I will post her comments as she wrote them in red and my answers below in black. To keep my comments from getting too long, I will answer each question in a separate post.

1) What City Council is going to approve all four annexations in the near term, when they are phased in the General Plan?
CCAT Response:
The General Plan of Grass Valley has specifically identified housing units for the three of the four annexations as follows:
Loma Rica 180 units, yet the proposal as submitted to the City is for 1,229
North Star 363 units, yet the proposal as submitted to the City is for 2,140
Kenny Ranch 50 units, yet the proposal as submitted to the City is for 463
Bear River nothing specified, but the proposal is for 312 units
At the current time, the City has not specified any phasing plans for the SDAs, so it difficult to assume any scenario except to estimate the total projects’ traffic impacts.

Page 3-24 of the General Plan, regarding the SDAs indicates agreements on land use, and housing units, all of which have been ignored by developers’ proposals submitted to the City. In addition, page 3-24, has no discussion of phasing.
We must have different Grass Valley General Plans. The one I downloaded from the Grass Valley web site, only has 22 pages in section three. The last page is 3-22.

Ingrid is right, no SDA phasing is listed in the general plan. I was taking my information from the NCTC Traffic model, which shows phased growth over 25 years. The GV information was taken from table 3-3 of the GVGP. However, I found this statement in the GVGP which was not in the Traffic Model description.
Figure 3-3 and the percentage formula thereon is not intended to be used as a phasing or sequencing plan for future annexations.

Ingrid had better information.
However, let us take a reality check. The GVGP projects a need for 2,820 new housing units in the Grass Valley Planning area from 1999 to 2020. . .

From the GP:
“Optimally, 32% (900 units) of total housing demand (2,820) can be accommodated through infill. Only 23% (643) of the projected 20-year net new housing demand can be satisfied as allowed by annexation agreements, even if the three areas were to “build out” their full housing unit allocations within the 20-year time frame.”
Even with the optimal build out, it looks like GV is still short 1277 units, so they may opt to expand the SDA number and consider South Hill homes. Regardless, if the total build out is 2820 over 20 years, that is 141 houses a year. To reach the worst case number presented by CCAT, at 141 houses a year, it will take 30 years to build out 4,144 homes.

Most of that building is not going to happen in Loma Rica, Northstar and South Hill until the interchanges are built. It is highly unlikely Loma Rica is going to be approved until the Dorsey Drive in under construction in ten years. And given it took 20 years to get Dorsey launched, it will take an equal amount of time to get Crestview on Caltrans’ schedule, unless the developers decide to fund the interchange.

Looks like phased development to me. We are not going to wake up in ten years and deal with 46,000 more vehicles on the road. Maybe in 50 years. More than enough time for developer mitigation fees and sales taxes to buy us less congested roads.

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